Last year, the Pure Alpha fund rose forty-five per cent, the highest return of any big hedge fund. In 2008, a disastrous year for many of Bridgewater’s rivals, the firm’s flagship Pure Alpha fund rose in value by nine and a half per cent after accounting for fees. Later that year, he warned the Bush Administration that many of the world’s largest banks were on the verge of insolvency. In 2007, Dalio predicted that the housing-and-lending boom would end badly. In search of profitable opportunities, Bridgewater buys and sells more than a hundred different financial instruments around the world-from Japanese bonds to copper futures traded in London to Brazilian currency contracts-which explains why it keeps a close eye on Greece. He said, “Here’s where you are being imprecise,” and then explained at length what a proper debt restructuring would entail, dismissing the E.C.B.’s move as an exercise in “kicking it down the road.”ĭalio is a “macro” investor, which means that he bets mainly on economic trends, such as changes in exchange rates, inflation, and G.D.P. A colleague began describing how the European Central Bank had just bought some Greek bonds from investors at a discount to their face value-a move that the speaker described as a possible precursor to an over-all restructuring of Greece’s vast debts. Dalio sat down near the front of the room. Of the fifty or so people present, most were clean-cut men in their twenties or thirties. After a few pleasantries, he grabbed a thick briefing book and shepherded me into a large conference room, where his firm was holding what he described as its weekly “What’s going on in the world?” meeting. He looked a bit like an aging member of a British progressive-rock group. When I met him earlier this year at his office, on the outskirts of Westport, Connecticut, he was wearing an open-necked blue shirt, gray corduroy pants, and black leather boots. Ray Dalio, the sixty-one-year-old founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fund, is tall and somewhat gaunt, with an expressive, lined face, gray-blue eyes, and longish gray hair that he parts on the left side. Ray Dalio has an uncanny ability to anticipate economic trends.
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